Will Mortgage Rates Drop in 2025
As a mortgage loan originator I regularly sit through meetings, read blogs, digest national economic media and talk with industry peers. Those conversations have always been optimistic for the short term as it relates to mortgage rates. When mortgage rates first started trending upward in early 2022, we were optimistic that it was going to be very temporary. The economic gurus pushed out convincing arguments on how rates would rebound to lower levels in just a year or two. They didn’t drop. Here we are 3 years later and the national average 30yr mortgage rate has trended back and forth most consistently in the 6.75%-7.25% range. Yes, much better than the near 8% we reached at one point.
Speculation vs Prediction: 2025 Mortgage Rates
Within the current geopolitical atmosphere, is it really within any experts scope to predict where mortgage rates will be by end of 2025? In the world of sports we can track statistics and then make a good evaluation where a team might fall in standings or the likelihood they will beat another team through evaluating box scores. The box score shows objective stats that you can put pencil to paper. Most sports experts often comment on how much of an influence some factors are that aren’t quite as objective to the extent they can be recorded on paper. In this geopolitical game we are in today, there is so many factors that do not show up on the economic “box score” that maybe economists and spreadsheet data gurus simply can not factor in. How reliable can rate and economic forecasts be today with such an unprecedented mark in history. “History defines the present” right? We use data from our history to tweak our decisions today. Simple enough to understand, but there really isn’t a historic event of this magnitude that we can compare to. Does anyone really know?
Expert Predictions: 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
All the above being said, read the following but organize your thoughts around that fact that there is no crystal ball.
- The National Association of Home Builders predict that rates will settle around 6.5? by mid-2025 and below 6% by end of 2026
- Fannie Mae predicts rates will stay above 6.5 through the middle of 2025
- Realtor.com predicts that rates could hang in the 6.3% range in 2025 and inch toward 6.2% by end of the year
If you are interested in getting preapproved to buy a home in 2025, or just want to talk about your mortgage planning, feel free to contact me.
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